COVID-19 daily, 11th May 2020
This will be the last edition of this newsletter, as I'm moving on to other projects. Thanks for subscribing!
Some resources:
• When can we test everyone? - this site will remain updated
• covidcharts.com - fast, US-specific charts
• endcoronavirus.org uses a similar framing of pre- and post-growth countries; also by US state
• rt.live - US viral reproduction rates
• covid-19.direct - good US county-level data when you pick by state
• ourworldindata.org - an excellent resource for any world trend, but particularly good coronavirus info
Best wishes to you and your families.
Country plots
#masks4all and our footnote [4].
Suggestions? You can reply to this email.
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World stats
Totals
4,101,704 cases —
2,410,005 active —
282,714 deaths
Lockdown / stay-at-home orders
|
when |
since |
Wuhan |
January 23rd |
109 days ago |
Italy |
March 9th |
63 days ago |
California |
March 19th |
53 days ago |
Country counts
Countries with 100+ cases: 150
Countries with 1,000+ cases: 93
Countries with 10,000+ cases: 44
Growth countries: 164
Post-growth countries: 24
Antibody studies
|
where |
when |
% pop inf* |
est. IFR** |
USC |
Los Angeles |
April |
2.8-5.6% |
0.2-0.6% |
Stanford |
Santa Clara |
April |
2.5-4.2% |
0.1-0.2% |
NYGov? |
New York |
April |
12.3% |
0.64% |
Aurhus |
Denmark |
April |
|
0.082% |
Guilan |
Iran |
April |
21-33% |
0.1% |
* implied percentage of population infected
** infection fatality rate, not just cases, but all infected
these studies are useful in aggregate, each study has flaws
Top countries by growth
|
totals |
wk rate |
deaths* |
doubling |
Brazil |
162,699 |
1.60x |
6.8% |
11 days |
India |
67,161 |
1.58x |
3.3% |
11 days |
Russia |
209,688 |
1.56x |
0.9% |
11 days |
Bangladesh |
14,657 |
1.55x |
1.6% |
11 days |
Pakistan |
30,334 |
1.51x |
2.2% |
12 days |
* for comparison only [1]
Top countries by cases
|
totals |
wk rate |
deaths* |
doubling |
US |
1,329,260 |
1.15x |
6.0% |
25 days |
Spain |
224,350 |
1.03x |
11.9% |
38 days |
UK |
220,449 |
1.17x |
14.5% |
23 days |
Italy |
219,070 |
1.04x |
13.9% |
40 days |
Russia |
209,688 |
1.56x |
0.9% |
11 days |
France |
177,094 |
1.05x |
14.9% |
31 days |
Germany |
171,879 |
1.04x |
4.4% |
38 days |
Brazil |
162,699 |
1.60x |
6.8% |
11 days |
Turkey |
138,657 |
1.10x |
2.7% |
26 days |
Iran |
107,603 |
1.10x |
6.2% |
37 days |
* for comparison only [1]
US breakout
Totals
1,329,260 cases —
1,033,565 active —
79,526 deaths
Case trend (week over week, day by day):
Are we bending the curve: YES??
1.18x ⟶ 1.18x ⟶ 1.16x ⟶ 1.16x ⟶ 1.15x
Mortality trend (week over week, day by day) [5]:
Are we improving treatment: STASIS?
1.20x ⟶ 1.20x ⟶ 1.19x ⟶ 1.19x ⟶ 1.17x
Testing:
9.0M tests, +3% since yesterday,
14.7% positive [2]
Whole US testing (330M) possible in ~99 days, mid August, at average 4% daily increase in capacity.
For comparison:
|
# of tests |
per million people* |
US |
8,987,524 |
27,189 |
S. Korea |
668,492 |
13,041 |
Italy |
1,702,283 |
28,145 |
Iceland |
54,213 |
159,105 |
* unknown how many are re-tests
Top states:
|
cases |
tests |
deaths |
in hosp |
in icu |
New York |
335,395 |
1,182,998 |
21,478 |
7,262 |
2,488 |
New Jersey |
138,754 |
312,447 |
9,255 |
4,308 |
1,338 |
Massachusetts |
77,793 |
388,389 |
4,979 |
3,128 |
810 |
Illinois |
77,741 |
429,984 |
3,406 |
4,293 |
1,232 |
California |
67,600 |
955,664 |
2,745 |
4,555 |
1,328 |
Pennsylvania |
59,939 |
284,383 |
3,707 |
2,230 |
|
Michigan |
47,182 |
285,678 |
4,551 |
1,437 |
674 |
Infections in early & exponential-growth countries
|
week of |
totals |
growth |
change* |
1: |
1/22 (7) |
37 |
|
|
2: |
1/29 (7) |
114 |
3.08x |
|
3: |
2/5 (7) |
309 |
2.71x |
-12% |
4: |
2/12 (7) |
808 |
2.61x |
-4% |
5: |
2/19 (7) |
1,572 |
1.95x |
-26% |
6: |
2/26 (7) |
7,089 |
4.51x |
+132% |
7: |
3/4 (7) |
28,559 |
4.03x |
-11% |
8: |
3/11 (7) |
99,607 |
3.49x |
-13% |
9: |
3/18 (7) |
300,118 |
3.01x |
-14% |
10: |
3/25 (7) |
712,442 |
2.37x |
-21% |
11: |
4/1 (7) |
1,230,562 |
1.73x |
-27% |
12: |
4/8 (7) |
1,796,771 |
1.46x |
-15% |
13: |
4/15 (7) |
2,362,117 |
1.31x |
-10% |
14: |
4/22 (7) |
2,904,987 |
1.23x |
-6% |
15: |
4/29 (7) |
3,467,816 |
1.19x |
-3% |
16: |
5/6 (5) |
3,905,232 |
~1.18x |
|
deaths: |
274,070 |
active cases: |
2,386,321 |
/ 61.1% |
projected weeks:
16: |
4,088,482 |
17: |
4,820,234 |
18: |
5,682,954 |
19: |
6,700,083 |
20: |
7,899,256 |
* change in growth, i.e. 2nd derivative
Infections in post-exponential countries (24)
Andorra, Australia, Austria, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hong Kong, Iceland, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Mauritius, New Zealand, Norway, S. Korea, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam
|
week of |
totals |
growth |
change* |
1: |
1/22 (7) |
5,542 |
|
|
2: |
1/29 (7) |
23,780 |
4.29x |
|
3: |
2/5 (7) |
44,495 |
1.87x |
-56% |
4: |
2/12 (7) |
74,330 |
1.67x |
-11% |
5: |
2/19 (7) |
78,836 |
1.06x |
-37% |
6: |
2/26 (7) |
85,754 |
1.09x |
+3% |
7: |
3/4 (7) |
90,064 |
1.05x |
-3% |
8: |
3/11 (7) |
97,530 |
1.08x |
+3% |
9: |
3/18 (7) |
117,991 |
1.21x |
+12% |
10: |
3/25 (7) |
145,169 |
1.23x |
+2% |
11: |
4/1 (7) |
165,880 |
1.14x |
-7% |
12: |
4/8 (7) |
178,799 |
1.08x |
-6% |
13: |
4/15 (7) |
186,933 |
1.05x |
-3% |
14: |
4/22 (7) |
192,246 |
1.03x |
-2% |
15: |
4/29 (7) |
194,880 |
1.01x |
-1% |
16: |
5/6 (5) |
196,472 |
~1.01x |
|
deaths: |
8,644 |
active cases: |
23,684 |
/ 12.1% |
projected weeks:
16: |
197,009 |
17: |
199,161 |
18: |
201,336 |
19: |
203,536 |
20: |
205,759 |
* change in growth, i.e. 2nd derivative
[1] The real case fatality rate (CFR) can only be determined
after the fact; however, it can be narrowed when
new cases and case resolutions reach parity, and the
growth rate becomes linear.
This has happened
in S. Korea (though noise persists); as of March 24th,
we can narrow S. Korea CFR to 1.33% - 3.31%, favoring the low side.
[2] High positivity rate probably means under-testing. As of March 22:
- S. Korea: 2.7%
- UK: 7%
- Australia: 1%
[3]
Tomas Pueyo: The Hammer and the Dance --
Skip to section 4.
[4] #masks4all:
[5] If we discover a treatment cocktail, we would expect to see the death rate start
to fall prior to the case load. If it doesn't, the death rate will continue rising beyond
case falloff by 3-4 weeks.
|